Could self-reported symptoms be predictors of RT-PCR positivity in suspected COVID-19 cases? The Libya experience.

Background: COVID-19 has symptoms similar to several other respiratory and non-respiratory diseases, which makes differentiating them a challenging task and could lead to unnecessary use of realtime reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) resources. Aims: The study aimed to assess self-reported symptoms as predictors for RT-PCR positivity in suspected COVID-19 cases. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study. We retrospectively reviewed the database of COVID-19 care centres in the eastern district of Tripoli, Libya, from May to December 2020. Presenting symptoms and RT-PCR test data were extracted. Results: Of the 4593 subjects, 923 (20.1%) had positive RT-PCR result. Sensitivity for COVID-19 disease diagnosis was very low (≤ 18.2%) for all symptoms, except for myalgia (82.1%). Specificity was high for all symptoms (90.7-99.8%), except for myalgia (11.0%). Loss of taste and smell had the highest positive likelihood ratio (LR) for RT-PCR positivity (LR+ = 3.59, 95% CI: 2.95-4.37). In the multiple logistic regression, three symptoms maintained significant contribution to RT-PCR positivity; these were loss of taste and smell (odds ratio (OR) = 3.90, 95% CI: 3.04-4.99), sore throat (OR = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.02-2.19), and myalgia (OR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.49-0.85). Other significant predictors were history of contact with a COVID-19 case (OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.39-0.62), and being female (OR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.15-1.55). Conclusion: The findings of this study do not support the use of self-reported symptoms for the confirmation of COVID-19 disease in suspected cases because of their poor diagnostic properties.

Diagnostic and treatment outcomes of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in the first year of COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has put a significant strain on human life and health care systems, however, little is known about its impact on tuberculosis (TB) patients. Aims: To assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) diagnosis, treatment and patient outcomes, using the WHO definitions. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Malatya region, Turkey (population 800 000). Data on regional PTB test numbers, case notification rates and PTB patients' clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes were collected. Data from the first pandemic year (2020) were compared to data from the previous 3 years (2017-2019). The attitudes and experiences of patients were analysed. Results: Despite a non-significant 22% decrease in annual PTB case notifications (P = 0.317), the number of TB tests performed (P = 0.001) and PTB patients evaluated (P = 0.001) decreased significantly during the pandemic year compared with the previous 3 years. The proportion of patients with high (3/4+) sputum acid-fast bacilli grades (P = 0.001), TB relapse (P = 0.022) and treatment failure (P = 0.018) increased significantly. The median 64.5-day treatment delay detected in 2017-2019 increased significantly to 113.5 days in 2020 (P = 0.001), due primarily to patients' reluctance to visit a health care facility. Conclusion: In addition to the problems with case detection, this study shows notable deterioration in several indicators related to the severity, contagiousness and poor outcomes of TB, which had already been suppressed for decades.

Machine Learning Prediction of Hospitalization due to COVID-19 based on Self-Reported Symptoms: A study for Brazil

Predicting the need for hospitalization due to COVID-19 may help patients to seek timely treatment and assist health professionals to monitor cases and allocate resources. We investigate the use of machine learning algorithms to predict the risk of hospitalization due to COVID-19 using the patient's medical history and self-reported symptoms, regardless of the period in which they occurred. Three datasets containing information regarding 217,580 patients from three different states in Brazil have been used. Decision trees, neural networks, and support vector machines were evaluated, achieving accuracies between 79.1% to 84.7%. Our analysis shows that better performance is achieved in Brazilian states ranked more highly in terms of the official human development index (HDI), suggesting that health facilities with better infrastructure generate data that is less noisy. One of the models developed in this study has been incorporated into a mobile app that is available for public use. © 2021 IEEE

A new screening tool for SARS-CoV-2 infection based on self-reported patient clinical characteristics: the COV19-ID score.

BACKGROUND: While several studies aimed to identify risk factors for severe COVID-19 cases to better anticipate intensive care unit admissions, very few have been conducted on self-reported patient symptoms and characteristics, predictive of RT-PCR test positivity. We therefore aimed to identify those predictive factors and construct a predictive score for the screening of patients at admission. METHODS: This was a monocentric retrospective analysis of clinical data from 9081 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection from August 1 to November 30 2020. A multivariable logistic regression using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was performed on a training dataset (60% of the data) to determine associations between self-reported patient characteristics and COVID-19 diagnosis. Regression coefficients were used to construct the Coronavirus 2019 Identification score (COV19-ID) and the optimal threshold calculated on the validation dataset (20%). Its predictive performance was finally evaluated on a test dataset (20%). RESULTS: A total of 2084 (22.9%) patients were tested positive to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Using the LASSO model, COVID-19 was independently associated with loss of smell (Odds Ratio, 6.4), fever (OR, 2.7), history of contact with an infected person (OR, 1.7), loss of taste (OR, 1.5), muscle stiffness (OR, 1.5), cough (OR, 1.5), back pain (OR, 1.4), loss of appetite (OR, 1.3), as well as male sex (OR, 1.05). Conversely, COVID-19 was less likely associated with smoking (OR, 0.5), sore throat (OR, 0.9) and ear pain (OR, 0.9). All aforementioned variables were included in the COV19-ID score, which demonstrated on the test dataset an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 82.9% (95% CI 80.6%-84.9%), and an accuracy of 74.2% (95% CI 74.1%-74.3%) with a high sensitivity (80.4%, 95% CI [80.3%-80.6%]) and specificity (72.2%, 95% CI [72.2%-72.4%]). CONCLUSIONS: The COV19-ID score could be useful in early triage of patients needing RT-PCR testing thus alleviating the burden on laboratories, emergency rooms, and wards.

Disentangling post-vaccination symptoms from early COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Identifying and testing individuals likely to have SARS-CoV-2 is critical for infection control, including post-vaccination. Vaccination is a major public health strategy to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infection globally. Some individuals experience systemic symptoms post-vaccination, which overlap with COVID-19 symptoms. This study compared early post-vaccination symptoms in individuals who subsequently tested positive or negative for SARS-CoV-2, using data from the COVID Symptom Study (CSS) app. METHODS: We conducted a prospective observational study in 1,072,313 UK CSS participants who were asymptomatic when vaccinated with Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2) or Oxford-AstraZeneca adenovirus-vectored vaccine (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) between 8 December 2020 and 17 May 2021, who subsequently reported symptoms within seven days (N=362,770) (other than local symptoms at injection site) and were tested for SARS-CoV-2 (N=14,842), aiming to differentiate vaccination side-effects per se from superimposed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The post-vaccination symptoms and SARS-CoV-2 test results were contemporaneously logged by participants. Demographic and clinical information (including comorbidities) were recorded. Symptom profiles in individuals testing positive were compared with a 1:1 matched population testing negative, including using machine learning and multiple models considering UK testing criteria. FINDINGS: Differentiating post-vaccination side-effects alone from early COVID-19 was challenging, with a sensitivity in identification of individuals testing positive of 0.6 at best. Most of these individuals did not have fever, persistent cough, or anosmia/dysosmia, requisite symptoms for accessing UK testing; and many only had systemic symptoms commonly seen post-vaccination in individuals negative for SARS-CoV-2 (headache, myalgia, and fatigue). INTERPRETATION: Post-vaccination symptoms per se cannot be differentiated from COVID-19 with clinical robustness, either using symptom profiles or machine-derived models. Individuals presenting with systemic symptoms post-vaccination should be tested for SARS-CoV-2 or quarantining, to prevent community spread. FUNDING: UK Government Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation, Chronic Disease Research Foundation, Zoe Limited.

Association between previous infection with SARS CoV-2 and the risk of self-reported symptoms after mRNA BNT162b2 vaccination: Data from 3,078 health care workers.

BACKGROUND: Health care workers (HCWs) are at high risk of contracting an infection by SARS CoV-2 and thus they are a priority for vaccination. We hereby aim to investigate whether the risk of severe and moderate systemic symptoms (MSS) after vaccination is higher in HCWs with a history of previous COVID-19. METHODS: An online questionnaire was offered to the cohort all HCWs undergoing anti-SARS CoV-2 mRNA BNT162b2 vaccination between January 4th and February 9th 2021 in two large tertiary hospitals (ASST Santi Paolo and Carlo) in Milan, Italy. Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection/COVID-19 was recorded. Local and systemic symptoms after each of the two doses were reported. MSS were those either interfering with daily activities or resulting in time off-work. Factors associated to MSS were identified by logistic regression. FINDINGS: 3,078 HCW were included. Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection/COVID-19 occurred in 396 subjects (12·9%). 59·6% suffered from ≥1 local or systemic symptom after the first and 73·4% after the second dose. MSS occurred in 6·3% of cases (14·4% with previous vs 5·1% with no COVID-19 p<0·001) and in 28·3% (24·5% in COVID-19 vs 28·3% no COVID, p = 0·074) after the first and second dose, respectively. Subjects already experiencing COVID-19 had an independent 3-fold higher risk of MSS after the first and a 30% lower risk after the second dose. No severe adverse events were reported. INTERPRETATION: Our data confirm in a real-world setting, the lack of severe adverse events and the short duration of reactogenicity in already infected HCWs. Possible differences in immune reactivity are drivers of MSS among this group of HCWs, as well as among females and younger individuals. FUNDING: None.

Fear of COVID-19 for Individuals and Family Members: Indications from the National Cross-Sectional Study of the EPICOVID19 Web-Based Survey.

The study analyzed the association of the fear of contagion for oneself and for family members (FMs) during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, with demographic and socioeconomic status (SES) and health factors. The study was performed within the EPICOVID19 web-based Italian survey, involving adults from April-June 2020. Out of 207,341 respondents, 95.9% completed the questionnaire (60% women with an average age of 47.3 vs. 48.9 years among men). The association between fear and demographic and SES characteristics, contacts with COVID-19 cases, nasopharyngeal swab, self-perceived health, flu vaccination, chronic diseases and specific symptoms was analyzed by logistic regression model; odds ratios adjusted for sex, age, education and occupation were calculated (aORs). Fear for FMs prevailed over fear for oneself and was higher among women than men. Fear for oneself decreased with higher levels of education and in those who perceived good health. Among those vaccinated for the flu, 40.8% responded they had feelings of fear for themselves vs. 34.2% of the not vaccinated. Fear increased when diseases were declared and it was higher when associated with symptoms such as chest pain, olfactory/taste disorders, heart palpitations (aORs > 1.5), lung or kidney diseases, hypertension, depression and/or anxiety. Trends in fear by region showed the highest percentage of positive responses in the southern regions. The knowledge gained from these results should be used to produce tailored messages and shared public health decisions.

Self-reported symptoms in healthy young adults to predict potential coronavirus disease 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the utility of self-reported symptoms in identifying positive coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases among predominantly healthy young adults in a military setting. METHODS: A questionnaire regarding COVID-19 symptoms and exposure history was administered to all individuals contacting the Israeli Defence Forces Corona call-centre, before PCR testing. Surveyed symptoms included cough, fever, sore throat, rhinorrhoea, loss of taste or smell, chest pain and gastrointestinal symptoms. Factors were compared between positive and negative cases based on confirmatory test results, and positive likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated. Results were stratified by sex, body mass index, previous medical history and dates of questioning, and a multivariable analysis for association with positive test was conducted. RESULTS: Of 24 362 respondents, 59.1% were men with a median age of 20.5 years (interquartile range 19.6-22.4 years). Significant positive LRs were associated with loss of taste or smell (LR 3.38, 95% CI 3.01-3.79), suspected exposure (LR 1.33, 95% CI 1.28-1.39) and fever (LR 1.26, 95% CI 1.17-1.36). Those factors were also associated with positive PCR result in a multivariable analysis (OR 3.51, 95% CI 3.04-4.06; OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.65-2.09; and OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.19-1.51, respectively). Reports of loss of taste or smell increased gradually over time and were significantly more frequent during the late period of the study (63/5231, 1.21%; 156/7941, 1.96%; and 1505/11 190, 13.45%: p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Loss of taste or smell, report of a suspicious exposure and fever (>37.5°C) were consistently associated with positive LRs for a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test result, in a population of predominantly young and healthy adults.